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It is well known that, unfortunately, there is still no reliable technique for the precise prediction of the arrival of an earthquake.

An innovative and fascinating idea for the prediction of earthquakes occurring in rocks rich in quartz crystals has been proposed by an interdisciplinary collaboration between researchers of the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN Sections of Milan and Ferrara) and geologists/geophysicists of the Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra “Ardito Desio” (DISTAD) of the Università degli Studi di Milano, with additional contributions from researchers at Sapienza Università di Roma and the Politecnico di Milano, coordinated by Luca Serafini.

The proposed technique, called ERMES (Earthquake Reconnaissance via Muon beam Evolution in Silicon dioxide), is based on the possibility of using high-energy muon beams (of the order of TeV) to investigate the piezoelectric fields that are produced in quartz when it is subjected to tectonic pressure in a fault zone. Muons can traverse layers of rock several kilometers thick and are sensitive to these piezoelectric fields. The theoretical models and numerical simulations developed by the collaboration indicate that it should be possible—although very challenging—to relate the characteristics of the muon beam emerging from the rock to the value of the tectonic stress. This quantity provides a direct indication of the approach of a seismic event, which occurs when the pressure exceeds the limit that leads to the fracture of the rock. In particular, INFN Milano Section contributed to the development of the MuAEGIS code, created by M. Rossetti Conti. This software is designed to simulate the transport of charged particles in the Earth's crust, specifically in quartz-rich rocks. In addition to the standard processes of energy loss and multiple scattering, it also incorporates the piezoelectric random walk generated in quartz crystals under tectonic stress.

The next step will be to perform the first laboratory tests in order to obtain the initial experimental evidence of the feasibility of ERMES.

The ERMES study is reported in an article published in Physical Review Research at the end of 2025. A second, more recent article is available on ArXiv.

A popular description of the ERMES concept was also presented in a report on the Italian television network La7 by Valerio Rossi Albertini:
https://www.la7.it/laria-che-tira/rivedila7/laria-che-tira-06-02-2026-631772 (from minute 1:41:10).